SXSW 2015 - Humans Are Predictable: Exploit It In Eight Charts

Today, the world is full of data. But insight doesn’t scale with data. In fact, our Simon James, Global Lead of Performance Analytics, can tell you everything you need to know about data analytics in eight charts without referencing "big data" - and yes it does deserve those speech marks. This is all possible because human beings are depressingly predictable in their behaviors.

Published in: Marketing, Data & Analytics

SXSW 2015 - Humans Are Predictable: Exploit It In Eight Charts from SapientNitro

Transcript

1. @Si_James_ #8charts
2. 1815
3. WHAT WE SHOULD DO VERSUS WHAT WE CAN DO
4. THE PROBLEM WITH (BIG) DATA* 35 Ze$abytes 2020 Data Insight** * The only men7on of ‘big data’ I promise ** I made this up – but trust me, I am a professional
5. PROFIT WISDOM KNOWLEDGE INFORMATION DATA
6. “THE MORE YOU DO SOMETHING, THE MORE LIKELY YOU ARE TO DO IT AGAIN” #1
7. DRUGS: 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 1-‐2 3-‐5 6-‐9 Cannabis Ecstasy Cocaine Number of times used Source: The Na7onal Ins7tute of Drug Abuse Likelihood to take more drugs
8. AFFAIRS: 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 1 2 3 Number of affairs Likelihood to have an(other) affair Source: Psychology Today
9. TODAY: THE END OF “BREAK-UP SEASON” TODAY Source: amie / visual.ly
10. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 1 -‐ 2 3 -‐ 6 7 -‐ 10 11 -‐ 14 15 or more Previous convictions One year proven re-offending rate Source: Gov.uk RECIDIVISM
11. Number of website visits Likelihood to return again REPEAT WEB VISITS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 UK-Football Club US-Retailer US-Automotive US-Financial Services UK-Retailer
12. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Number of purchases Likelihood to repeat purchase REPEAT BUYING
13. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 UK-‐Football Club US-‐Retailer US-‐Automo7ve US-‐Financial Services UK-‐Retailer Number of website visits Percentage of visitors MOST PEOPLE DO THINGS ONCE
14. WHY IS THE WORLD FULL OF LOYALTY PROGRAMS?
15. Marriott Rewards®, our award-winning guest loyalty program, and The Ritz-Carlton Rewards® program, now in its fourth year, together surpassed 45 million members, accounting for more than half of our room nights worldwide. Our members are committed to us. Over the past seven years, the most active 1 percent of Marriott’s customers accounted for more than 30 percent of room nights. Source: Marrio$ Interna7onal Inc. Annual Report 2013
16. HIGHER FREQUENCY OF PURCHASE PER CUSTOMER HIGHER PROPORTION OF REPEAT PURCHASERS LOWER DEFECTION INCREASED MARKET SHARE
17. “THE LONGER YOU LEAVE IT, THE LESS LIKELY IT WILL EVER HAPPEN” #2
18. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Days into one year follow up period One year proven re-offending rate RECIDIVISM
19. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% UK Football US Retail US Auto UKRetail Days since last visit Repurchase Likelihood REPEAT VISIT LIKELIHOOD
20. “LOTS OF CUSTOMERS ARE UNPROFITABLE” #3
21. VILFREDO PARETO
22. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % of customers % of revenue A TRADITIONAL PARETO
23. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% A REALISTIC PARETO % of revenue % of customers
24. “SEGMENTATION IS REDUNDANT IN DIGITAL” NOBODY IS A SEGMENT #4
25. MY COLLEAGUE NICK GEEK PHOTO OBVIOUSLY STOLEN MEET NICK
26. MASSIVE WHEY PROTEIN CLOSE UP HIS DESK
27. SEMI-PRO IMAGE FROM FILM HEADBAND INC.SEMI-PRO
28. IMAGE – HEALTHY FOOD SUPERFOODS, YUM
29. IMAGE – INSTANT FOOD NUCLEAR DINNER
30. IMAGE 3 – BACON SANDWICH MMM, BACON
31. Mike works as a graphic designer in a small agency and one day wants to run his own agency. He’s got an iPhone and a Vodafone 360 H1 by Samsung phone, one personal and one for work. He follows friends and key people in the design industry via Twi$er, blogs, and RSS feeds. He uses his iPhone for work emails and his H1 for Facebook. He uses Twi9er to post updates about what he’s up to with his project work as well as using it as a tool to ﬁnd out what people are up to and invite them to events. He uses Facebook to share personal photos and video and keeps a Tumblr blog to post interes7ng things he discovers and share them with his friends and followers. Zoe is studying a Masters in Interna@onal Development, unsure of what the future lies ahead of her. She is constantly using the Facebook app on her Vodafone 360 M1 by Samsung phone as well as on her PC to upload and tag photos and videos from places she’s been to with her friends, as well as to ﬁnd out and comment on who’s been where at which club nights and par7es. She regularly texts and messages her friends to ﬁnd out if they’ve heard about a new pop-‐ up shop she heard about via a ﬂyer, or one-‐ oﬀ warehouse party started by friends of friends. Geoﬀ works as an senior architect in a large prac7ce and has a wife and a young girl and 6-‐ month baby boy. He thinks the @me is right to start looking for a bigger home for his family. Geoﬀ uses his Vodafone 360 H1 to take photos and videos of prospec7ve sites he visits. He purchased the H1 because of its ability to check email, surf the web, use apps, and take photos and video. He loves the built-‐in camera and also uses this phone on holiday to take snaps of the family as it ﬁts in his pocket and doesn’t want to carry a large SLR around with him. He likes to upload his photos and video to Flickr and share them with his family and friends. He also creates photo books from his holiday snaps to give as gibs to his parents. Techie Socialite Cost-‐ conscious MIKE ZOE GEOFF 25-‐34 single male living with friends 18-‐33 single female living with friends 35-‐49 married male with young kids
32. #1 THE MORE YOU DO SOMETHING = F #2 THE LONGER IT TAKES = R #3 UNPROFITABLE CUSTOMERS = V
33. # Ref Name Descrip@on Strategy Which means 1 HHH High Recency, High Frequency, High Value Your best customers Milk Protect 2 HHL High Recency, High Frequency, Low Value Li$le and oben Addict Cross sell 3 HLH High Recency, Low Frequency, High Value Occasional bingers Upsell Up sell 4 HLL High Recency, Low Frequency, Low Value Noobs School Nurture 5 LHH Low Recency, High Frequency, High Value Former best customers Oh shit Win back 6 LHL Low Recency, High Frequency, Low Value Former li$le and oben Oh well Low priority 7 LLH Low Recency, Low Frequency, High Value Former bingers Whatever Low priority 8 LLL Low Recency, Low Frequency, Low Value Former noobs Trash Ignore
34. “NEVER TRUST A RATIO” #5
35. NPS These rela7ve Net Promoter Scores were then correlated with organic growth measures. In most industries, NPS explained roughly 20% to 60% of the varia7on in organic growth rates among compe7tors. http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/the-economics-of-loyalty.aspx
36. ROI = NET REVENUE COST
37. “ALGORITHMS HAVE NO ETHICS” #6
38. FACEBOOK YEAR IN REVIEW
39. THE RANDOM DARKNET SHOPPER
40. IMAGE EU MAYBE CHART OF INSURANCE CLAIMS BY GENDER
41. WHATSAPP EVIDENCE USED TO DIVORCE NEARLY HALF OF ITALIAN ADULTERERS
42. GIAN ETTORE GASSANI, ITALIAN ASSOCIATION OF MATRIMONIAL LAWYERS “WE HAVE SEEN ADULTERERS USING THE SERVICE TO MAINTAIN THREE OR FOUR RELATIONSHIPS – IT’S LIKE DYNAMITE”
43. “THE CONSEQUENCE OF GETTING IT WRONG” #7
44. MIND THE GAP
45. WHO IS THE MOST FAMOUS SPORTS PERSON TO WRONGLY FAIL A DRUGS TEST?
46. DIANE MODAHL
47. FOR EVERY 5 LIVES SAVED, 17 WILL HAVE TREATMENT THAT DON’T NEED IT Source: Cancer Research UK
48. PROBLEM WITH MARKETING: LACK OF CONSEQUENCES
49. “POLICING THE POLICE” #8
50. STOP AND SEARCH IMAGE UK POLICE - ARMED
51. SECTION 60 STOP AND SEARCH WHITE PEOPLE: 87% OF POPULATION 41% OF SEARCHES 59% OF ARRESTS
52. HEADLINE GCHQ SPYING ON EMAILS NSA SAME
53. MISSING TEENAGERS GOING TO SYRIA HEADLINES – HOW?
54. THINGS WE KNOW THINGS WE KNOW ARE WRONG THINGS WE SHOULDN’T KNOW THINGS WE SHOULD KNOW
55. THANK YOU @Si_James_ #8charts

The world

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

SXSW 2015 - Humans Are Predictable: Exploit It In Eight Charts

SXSW 2015 - Humans Are Predictable: Exploit It In Eight Charts

Transcript